
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will have to make a deal on who will get the Democratic nomination or they will destroy the Democratic Party. Given the nature of the candidates, their supporters and their party, there appears to be only one way they can do it: Clinton takes the nomination now, and the super delegates guarantee support for Obama the next time around.
Hillary Clinton will do anything to claim the power of the presidency, including destroy the Democratic Party. She and Bill never cared how poorly their party fared as the cost of their rise to power, and their desperate attempts to cling to it once there. If she loses this time, she and her husband will be history.
Barack Obama wants just as desperately to be president. While time will only make him a stronger candidate, this campaign has been lightning in a bottle. Who knows if his popularity will remain strong enough for a second run. The nomination, and the office of the presidency, are so close he can taste it.
So the already internecine warfare already going on in the Democratic party is only going to intensify without a deal. The Democratic party has for a couple of decades only been able to win national elections on the basis of appeals to victim hood based on race, gender and economic status, so the resulting chaos at the Democratic convention seems inevitable no matter who loses the nomination.
So what is a liberal Democrat politician to do? There is only one way out, bribe Obama to quit, and use the Florida and Michigan delegations to cover the deal. Neither candidate can win a majority of pleged delegates. With the result now depending on backroom deals with "super" delegates, Obama does not really have a chance. The Democratic Party's leaders know they cannot talk Clinton out of destroying the party in her search for power. When she won the Texas and Ohio primaries, any hope that she would voluntarily quit evaporated. This is her one shot. Her and Bill's power in the party came from winning. A loss of this magnitude will free those who have been chafing under their arrogant control for over a decade and they will never be a serious factor again.
Obama is another story though. His political career has really just started. He wants to be president, maybe as much as Clinton. But just a few years ago he said himself that he was not ready. And that will be the basis for the deal.
The Democratic super delegates will meet with Obama, and pledge him their unconditional support in 2012 if Hillary loses this election, or 2016 if she wins. They will have a good case. He is a phenomenon right now, but he is vulnerable in the general election on two principal issues: experience and his overwhelmingly liberal voting record. If Obama faces McCain now, his claims to be someone who crosses the aisle to get things done will be met with citations to his overwhelmingly liberal voting record in the Senate.
Letting the party survive now will give him both the super delegates' promises of support in the future, and even more importantly the time to gain experience, whether as a vice president or Senator. He will also have time to learn the Clinton art of triangulation. As a vice president, he could even be given the chance to work with liberal Republicans on a host of minor issues creating the appearance of bipartisanship. As a senator, he could still vote as liberal as ever on major issues, while again pushing for the appearance of bipartisanship on lesser matters. In a later run for the presidency he would not have to worry about alienating the net roots because he is already established as a rock star type personality and they wil know his true nature as a "dyed in the wool" liberal. Plus he will have the backing of all those party hacks formerly known as super delegates. Obama will see that it is better to have the full party's support in 4 or 8 years, rather than be seen as one of two egomaniacs who wrecked the party for a decade. The Democratic leadership would love to have a more experienced, more "nuanced" Obama as their candidate, without Clinton as an albatross around everyone's neck.
The question is how to do this without Obama looking like the complete sellout he would actually be. His fan base is...well...fanatical. It does no good to bribe someone if you destroy his credibility in the process. The risk would be that his supporters would still man the barricades at the Democratic convention and beyond, throwing the election to McCain.
Democrats have to make it look like Clinton won the nomination fair an square, on the basis of the primaries not a backroom deal. The answer is Michigan and Florida. The Democrats can not simply seat those delegations and give Clinton a lead in delegates and votes. They will have to have a re-vote, timed for when Clinton's popularity has recovered. If Clinton can win even a one vote edge in either the popular vote or the delegate count, that will provide the fig leaf for the deal. Obama could then be offered the vice presidency, perhaps with a prior understanding that he will respectfully decline, while pledging his support to Clinton and urging his delegates to vote for her. She will have the nomination, and he will be guaranteed the next slot in line.
Clinton has been laying the groundwork for this deal for some time. Her remarks at the last debate about it being an "honor" to campaign alongside Obama, and the later floating of the possibility of Obama being her vice president, cleared the way for the deal. No matter how much Clinton savages Obama to keep him from winning a clear victory in the meantime, she has already laid out the first installment she is willing to pay.
How will we know if the deal has been done? Easy. Clinton will never abide by the rules everyone agreed to before Michigan and Florida voted. Those results are her only chance to get even a slim lead in votes or delegates. Obama will not agree to re-running the primaries while Clinton's poll numbers are climbing back because he is impossible to catch now. He won't risk running in states that are exactly the kind Clinton has won, particularly with her poll numbers are rising.
Any deal on Florida and Michigan that has the support of both Clinton and Obama will mean they both know that the results of those votes are irrelevant to the outcome, and have accepted it. Which will mean they have agreed to let Hillary win, with Obama next in line. On the other hand, if the blood bath that seems to be looming starts in earnest when the Michigan/Florida issue is resolved, then we will know that there was no deal and the real fun will begin.